7 Ways a Government Influences its Currency!

They set the tone by the policies that they set. Ex. Sarbanes-Oxley has driven money away from the U.S. stock markets and IPO market into other markets, thus hurting the long term prospects for the U.S. dollar. Europe has been more favorable to corporations, so money has flowed there and not to America as much due to this.

They set the tone by what they do with their printing presses. If a government resists the temptation to print tons of money, then it will retain its value. If it “waters it down” by printing tons of it, then it erodes the value of it away. Australia is not quick to print money, yet the U.S. is!



If it encourages “money inflows” into its country through making products that the outside world wants, it ensures inflows into its currency. If it is a country that is heavily involved mainly in the services sectors and itself is a net importer of goods, then there’s huge likelihood that they are setting their currency up for a fall. This is exactly what we have in the U.S.! Yet Australia actually mines and exports many of the world’s most needed commodities: Gold, Copper, Wheat, etc.



If a nation stores up monetary surpluses, it provides a better sentiment for investors and causes “inflows” of money very easily. However, if the country has blossoming deficits, it discourages money flows into the country and actually scares some of it away and prevents other “new money” that would like to enter that country from entering due to them being so worried about their ability to repay their debts. Again, a problem of the U.S. Yet China has huge surpluses.



The ability of investors to trust a government is another huge one. There is a ton of potential money that COULD go into Russia but WON’T go into Russia because you never know what they will do next. Their government is so corrupt and has such a bad image from the outside world of being so shady in their dealings with much of the rest of the world (and their own people/corporations) that it hinders some “inflows” into their currency. Yet Canada and Australia’s governments have great track records.



What a country does with their interest rates has a HUGE effect upon inflows and outflows in a currency. If interest rates are high and headed higher, it generally encourages money to it as investors seek higher yields on their money. However, if a country holds their rates unusually low, then they’re encouraging outflows. Examples of this right now are the U.S. and Japan. Rates are unusually low and thus money is starting to flow away from them once again. Australia and New Zealand were two of the only major countries that weren’t inclined to take their rates near zero percent like most of the rest of the industrialized world, and they have been rewarded the most as things have started to snap back for their financial markets and currencies.



Governments that are “tax friendly” to residents and especially to corporations are likely to see more inflows than those who aren’t. This is why so many companies are moving away from the U.S. as Obama pours on the taxes and they run towards places like Dublin, Ireland. This hurts the dollar and helps the euro!



These are seven huge areas that come to mind where a government plays a huge role in influencing their currency, whether they realize it or not…and many times they don’t (because they’re politicians and not savvy investors!

Couldn’t they intervene? History says they won’t…and if they did, it will backfire!

So the central bank wants a lower Canadian dollar to make it easier on these crucial companies. Will they get it? NO! Oh sure, they may be able to influence the USD/CAD up 300-500 pips…but what is that when the pair has moved 2,700 pips downward and will continue that downtrend?



You see, traders know that the global economy is “on the mend” and as it is recovering, it will consume more oil and other commodities that Canada exports. They also know that the U.S. dollar has been in a broad downtrend since March (according to the U.S. Dollar Index). This broad U.S. dollar sell off isn’t going to change just because the Canadian central bank wants it to.



Oh yeah, but they could go in and “sell Canadian dollars” right? Sure they could…but, it would not be effective and the foreign exchange market would simply laugh at them with the trend and fundamentals going in the favor of the traders and against that of the bank.



Also, traders know that there’s a good chance that the bank is bluffing too. Why? The central bank has abandoned intervention policies ever since 1998. They didn’t intervene when the currency reached a record high in 2007 and or when it’s had its biggest gain since the Korean War during May.



Therefore, there are a ton of years there that the bank did nothing when the currency moved to extremes. So they have no reason to believe that it will be any different this time.



Most of the time, they just “jaw bone” the currency by talking about what they “could” do. However, when push comes to shove, they usually don’t anymore.



They stopped intervening in 1998 because it simply ended up causing even more volatility and ended up making it even more difficult for their exporters to hedge their risks.



If they “talk the pair up”, short the rallies!



Therefore, here’s how I see this playing out on the chart below. Sure, they may “talk the currency up” a few hundred pips or more in the near term. It could happen. However, smart traders are “selling rallies” in the USD/CAD pair because the trend is down and the fundamentals overall, are on the mend. Therefore any bounce upward, is likely to result in another big push downward.

Canada’s central bank is “smoking something”!

Well, “intervention talk” is in the air again! This time it’s the Bank of Canada!



Why are they so concerned with their currency? Well the USD/CAD exchange rate has dropped from 1.30 to 1.07 (2,700 pips) in mere months (5 months to be exact).



This can wreak havoc upon a company that is trying to figure out how to hedge their currency exposure so that it doesn’t eat into the profits of their business…and the central bank realizes this too.



That’s why Central Bank Governor Carney, together with Finance Minister Flaherty are coming together to attempt to “jaw bone” the currency lower (in other words bring the USD/CAD exchange rate higher).



Canada’s Fed Governor has stated that the gain in the currency is a major risk to economic growth…adding that “he has the flexibility to deal with it”. The Finance Minister backed him up by saying “steps could be taken to dampen the (Canadian) dollar”.



Governor Carney is attempting to lessen the appeal of the loonie by stating that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged through at least the 2nd quarter of 2010.



You see, when you are a Canadian company and you’re trying to hedge against currency fluctuations of 5-10% in a short amount of time, it’s tough. (They really need my services. Hehe!)



Canada’s factory orders have been hit (down 29% since last July) as a result of the strengthening currency. That couldn’t come at a worse time because at the same time you’ve had General Motors and Chrysler shut down Canadian plants, dealers and parts suppliers. Manufacturers have had to fire 221,500 workers as a result.

Don’t be fooled by Friday’s “dollar rally”!

The U.S. dollar got a nice “pop” on Friday as a better-than-expected NFP (employment) report came out. However, I call this a “sucker rally” because the dollar’s broad trend has been downward since March (according to the U.S. Dollar Index chart).

Therefore, since the probabilities lie on the side of the trend, it’s best to short the dollar on rallies upward by buying foreign currencies against it: AUD/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD being some of the top candidates in my opinion due to them leading the way in their yearly inflation figures. These are likely the countries to have to raise interest rates first and that will only drive more money away from the buck and into these other foreign currencies (which helps the buyers of these pairs).

Another factor that really doesn’t work in the dollar’s favor is the global recovery that’s underway right now. You see, the dollar only ran up when the “sky was falling”. But now that financial markets are stabilizing, that works against the green back and not for it. It does however, work in the favor of currencies that have higher inflation in their economies (vs. the deflationary numbers in the U.S) and it also works in the favor of the higher yielding currencies.

The deflationary Japanese economy is really causing money to pour out of the yen and into these currencies as well, which bodes well for: AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY over time.

So keep these pairs on your radar screen. It doesn’t mean that any moment of any day is the time to buy them…but it does mean that they are “fundamentally supported” the most and therefore should be your “top candidates” to consider as your technical entry set-ups occur.

New Zealand strength starts to emerge!

New Zealand is climbing its way up to the top of the pack of stronger currencies. It has THE highest CPI (year over year) and has the 2nd highest interest rate out there. With the high CPI readings, traders are starting to bet that they will have to hike rates sooner rather than later.

But you can see this NZD strength when you compare it across the board. For instance, NZD/USD’s chart is holding up better than most other dollar pairs, NZD/JPY is holding up better than many yen crosses.

Then when you compare NZD directly with many other pairs, it shows its strength too: EUR/NZD’s downtrend due to NZD strength…AUD/NZD slumping over due to NZD strength,…GBP/NZD breaking lower to on a weaker GBP AND NZD strength.

So whether you’re a position trader (weeks to months), swing trader (days to weeks) or an intraday trader (in and out within the same day typically)…it’s always better to “buy strength” no matter what your holding period.

Therefore, a “technical buy” signal on a NZD pair may be better to take than a technical buy that shows up on a weaker currency.

So while you may look for technical entries…I also want to get you thinking about which currencies may be the best choices to pick from too…when looking for technical entry signals on your charts. Click on the chart to enlarge it.

Dollar’s rally is just about to run out of steam!

Even bear markets have rallies. But why would I refer to the dollar’s recent rally as a “bear market rally” and not a rally into a “new trend”? Because there is no technical indication that has surfaced to think otherwise. Click on the chart below to enlarge everal things worth noting on that chart of the U.S. Dollar Index:

The pair is still downtrending as shown by it trading below BOTH the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages. Also, the MACD lines are below the zero line (red boxed area) and the Slow Stochastics are just about to go into the “overbought” territory once again as the dollar approaches its 50 day SMA resistance area.

There’s an old Wall St. saying….”trade the trend until it ends”. However, do realize that there are rallies in every bear market (downtrend). These are to be expected. After all, they usually can’t go “straight down”. Therefore, upward corrections are involved…much like the pull backs that happen within an uptrend.

Therefore, there’s no reason to see this as any other thing unless this technical picture changes. So far it has not. So I’ll stick with the trend “until it ends”.

That means, it’s probably better to be a buyer of strong currencies as these dollar rallies happen and start to roll over once again. Two of the top “strong currencies” right now are NZD and AUD…so being a buyer of NZD/USD and AUD/USD after these dollar rallies (which cause pull backs in these pairs) is to be favored until such time that there’s an actual re-emergence of a “dollar uptrend” which I think is a long ways off.

Here’s what makes the Carry Trade so great!

So now that we can predict the “long term” flow of money…why not jump in the line now and allow all of the other future buyers of Aussie and New Zealand dollars push up our positions in these same currencies over time.

So if I buy any of these (as of the time of this writing): AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, NZD/USD or NZD/JPY then I can enjoy BOTH the money flow AWAY from the U.S. and Japan and the money flow INTO Australia and New Zealand. By capturing both dynamics…my positions ratchet higher over time WHILE at the same time, I’m earning DAILY interest while I wait for further appreciation in the pair. When this strategy works: This strategy works when the global economy is coming out of a recession (past the trough of the recession) and in expansionary times when countries are doing good economically.

When the strategy doesn’t work: This strategy doesn’t work when the global economy is about to go into a recession (or for that matter, usually even when it’s just the U.S. going into a recession).

Since expansionary times last longer than recessionary times, the strategy works, more times than not.

When it’s not working….guess what? Short these pairs and you can make money that way.

Here’s what makes the Carry Trade so great!

Many people don’t really get the “carry trade” strategy and why it’s so great. Their focus is on the daily interest and they don’t see themselves getting rich off of the daily interest. However, that’s only ONE of the reasons why traders get into the carry trade.

Think of a carry trade this way. Let’s say you have two banks in the same town. Bank A will offer you 3% in a savings account while Bank B will only offer you 1/2 of 1% (0.50%). Which one are you going to deposit money into?

Now, if you were a betting man or woman…which bank would you bet on having the most “inflows” of deposits? Of course, Bank A…because people aren’t idiots and want to earn the most they can on their money.

Well while the carry trade isn’t a “savings account” by any means…it works off of a similar principle.

Traders and investors alike want to earn the most that they can on their money. After all, the interest earned is the closest thing to a guarantee as you’ll get. So investors look out in the “investing arena” and look to see who has high interest rates when compared to others.

It’s no surprise that investors from all over the world pile into the same, few high yielding currencies.

Look at the chart below and you will see what investors all over the world are looking at. Now which currencies would you look into first? The U.S., Japan?….or Australia and New Zealand? Of course, the latter. Why? Because your mama didn’t raise a dummy and you want to get the highest interest rate possible on your money. Click on the charts below to enlarge them.

How to know how much a “pip” is worth for any pair!

Many times, newer traders ask me how they can find out how much a “pip” is worth for any pair. Some will refer to these as pip “costs”, others will say pip “values”, etc. but it’s all the same thing.

They all want to know, if my pair moves up one increment or down one increment…how many dollars does that equate to?

Here’s the simple answer. It’s automatically calculated for you on your trading station. You can view this on the “Advanced rates” which is the default setting..OR…you can view it on the Simple rates” tab.

See both of them below.

I’ve circled (in each format) where to find the pip cost/value for a pair. Notice that any pair that ends in USD (ex. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, etc.) all have pip values of $1.00 per standard mini lot. Had this been a micro account, then the pip value would be 10 times less or .10 (10 cents) per pip of movement (since a micro lot is ten times smaller than a standard mini lot).

Remember, that a standard mini lot = 10,000 units of currency and a micro lot = 1,000 units of currency.

So the pairs that end in something other than USD (ex. EUR/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/AUD, etc.) will have pip values that change slightly over long periods of time.

However, you can easily see what a “pip” is worth in that pair BEFORE you place your trade since it’s conveniently located on your quote screen.

This is important to note because there’s a big difference in EUR/GBP’s pip value of $1.66 and EUR/AUD’s pip value of .84 (84 cents).

So one pip of movement for or against you in EUR/GBP is +/-$1.66. However, in EUR/AUD this same amount of movement is +/-$0.84 (big difference, dollar wise…yet the same amount of pips moved). Click on the charts to enlarge them.

Possible Head and Shoulders Pattern in GBP/USD?

A lot of times, especially during the summer slow months, there isn’t enough fundamental news to drive the markets and it’s times like these when the technicals can really take over. Just doing a quick perusal of some charts, I came across this: a possible head and shoulders pattern in GBP/USD. Have a look:As you can see, this pattern isn’t “perfect”. Yet it’s close enough to merit some observation in my book. I’m going to keep an eye on this pair and will be shorting the breakdown around 1.635 should the pattern complete. Stay tuned!

Trade triggered!

Well it looks like we didn’t have to wait very long for that possible GBP/USD H&S pattern to trigger a short sale. (See below) We are short this pair and looking for a major push down in the next day or two. Our stop is placed just above 1.66 (above the top of the right hand shoulder) and we’ll be trailing the stop. Check back in to see the progress of this trade.While this trade started out as a pattern on the daily chart, we chose to drop down to the 5-minute chart to manage the trade as our first profit target was hit. Our trailing stop for the rest of the position is now at 1.6275, which is just above the most recent area of resistance, and also represents a 75 pip gain. So basically this is now a risk free trade!

GBP/USD Short Looking Good!

Just wanted to post a quick update on this trade that triggered yesterday. We actually closed out a portion at 1.6175, for a 175 pip gain. This pair is the biggest loser of the day so far (-1.04%), so it appears that other traders may have recognized the H&S pattern as well. The reason we closed a portion was because of the doji that occurred on the 5-minute chart, and the stochastic cross that occurred as well. See chart (click to enlarge)

Harricanus

The currencies also declined after stocks in the U.S. fell on the worst contraction in manufacturing since 1982 and forecasts that the sagging economy will reduce profits. About 1 billion shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, the slowest trading day since August. The S&P 500 lost 2.45 points, or 0.3 percent, to 966.3.

``For the Aussie to continue to recover the ground that was lost, particularly in the last couple of weeks, we would need to see stocks trading higher,'' said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp.

New Zealand's currency also fell as the nation's commodity export price index slumped to an 18-month low in October led by beef, aluminum and wool, according to ANZ National Bank Ltd. Exports make up 30 percent of the New Zealand economy.

Australian government bonds advanced. The yield on the benchmark 1-year note dropped 39 basis points to 3.785 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yield on 90-day bank bill futures fell to 4.48 percent from 4.95 yesterday.

New Zealand's two-year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, declined to 6.31 percent today from 6.34 yesterday.

Australian dollar

The Australian dollar extended declines after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by more than economists estimated, reducing investor appetite for higher-yielding assets. New Zealand's currency also fell.

Australia's dollar slid 2.5 percent to 66.49 U.S. cents as of 4:34 p.m. in Sydney from 68.06 cents late in Asia yesterday. It traded at 67.17 cents just before the RBA announced the 0.75 percentage point cut to 5.25 percent at 2:30 p.m. The currency bought 65.41 yen from 66.34 before the decision.

``The Aussie might come under downside pressure from the bigger rate cut,'' said Besa Deda, acting chief economist and strategist at St. George Bank Ltd. in Sydney, referring to the currency by its nickname. ``Clearly, international conditions, with further signs that China is slowing, are one of the key factors for the RBA to cut rates.''

Fifteen of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast a 50 basis-point cut, with one predicting 25 basis points. Today's decision follows a 1 percentage point reduction last month, the bank's biggest cut since May 1992 as the economy was emerging from a recession.

New Zealand's dollar declined 0.9 percent to 58.70 U.S. cents from 59.23 cents. It bought 57.90 yen from 58.81.

Australia's currency has plunged 29 percent against the dollar over the past three months and 35 percent versus the yen after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. froze credit markets and prompted investors to dump higher-yielding assets on concern over a global recession. New Zealand's dollar is 20 percent and 27 percent lower versus the greenback and the yen, respectively.

USTrade Foreign

Learn to Trade Foreign Currency - One Crumb at a Time

It requires diligence and discipline to learn to trade foreign currency. It doesn't matter whether you're a seasoned pro or after a beginner's forex trading training course. Currency trading is about having your finger on the pulse of the market, specializing in select relationships, and attacking the market ruthlessly and fearlessly when opportunity strikes. Sound like fun to you? Then read on.
Contents at a Glance

1. Why There is Always Opportunity to Make Money Trading Foreign Currency
2. In a Purely Logical World Currency Cross Rates Always Make Sense
3. Learning to Trade Foreign Currency

4. The Key to Learning to Trade Foreign Currency with Leverage
5. Automated Trading Programs Trade Currency Faster Than Us
6. Did You Learn about Trading Foreign Currency?

more...
Contents at a Glance

1. Why There is Always Opportunity to Make Money Trading Foreign Currency
2. In a Purely Logical World Currency Cross Rates Always Make Sense
3. Learning to Trade Foreign Currency
4. The Key to Learning to Trade Foreign Currency with Leverage
5. Automated Trading Programs Trade Currency Faster Than Us

6. Did You Learn about Trading Foreign Currency?
7. Open a Trading Account Today
8. Books on Foreign Currency Trading
9. Forex Trading Blog
10. Other Day Trading Investment Tutorials

less...
Why There is Always Opportunity to Make Money Trading Foreign Currency
Trading Currency Cross Rates Creates Momentary Arbitrage

Trading foreign currency may be a little confusing for the novice investor but hear me out and I'll try to make it more plain for you. Below is a chart detailing the relationships between three currencies (Yen, US Dollar, and Euro) from July of 2008 to July of 2009.
Learn more about foreign currency trading and forex binary options trading
In a Purely Logical World Currency Cross Rates Always Make Sense
Foreign Currencies Trade in Pairs Called Cross Rates

You'll note in the chart above that there appears to be some sort of synchonization between the movements of the values of the currencies. For example, when the Euro/Dollar cross rate is rising (dollar is strengthening), and the Yen/Dollar is flat, one would expect to see the Yen/Euro falling. That is precisely what we see going on in this chart. It's logical. One should not be able to sell a euro, buy a dollar, then sell the dollar and buy a Yen, only to sell the Yen immediately to buy 2 euros. That simply wouldn't make sense would it? How can anyone expect to sell one euro and then an instant later get 2 back (pardon the exaggeration here) without adding any value to the initial euro sold? It doesn't make sense does it? Well I can tell you it happens every - single - day.
Learning to Trade Foreign Currency
Chart 2: Implied Cross Rate vs. Actual Market Cross Rate

Take a look at a second, slightly different chart. We're still analyzing the cross rates between Yen, US Dollar, and Euro, only now we're only interested in the Actual Yen/Dollar rate, and the cross rate for the Yen/Dollar implied by the Yen/Euro and Euro/Dollar cross rates.
Learn how to open a foreign currency trading account and forex binary options trading account

What I've done here is plotted the implied Yen/Dollar cross rate (made by trading euros, dollars, and Yen) against just trading the dollar for Yen directly. There is virtually no different between the two, yet what are the large green spikes?

start the forex trading

How to Succeed with Mini Forex Trading
mini forex trading account

mini forex trading account

A good way to start the forex trading if you are staring with a small sum of money is mini forex trading. You can test different forex trading systems without a lot of risk, refine your trading techniques and keep good records on your trades and the result. It is a great way to learn the tricks and skills needed and get a feel for forex trading to succeed without having to go to great expense with mini forex trading.

So many benefits for small traders will get from mini forex trading. Mini trading was planned for group or individuals of people starting out in the trade market that are incapable to invest a big sum of money. For beginners that are new to the forex trade market to allow them to first get a feel, mini forex trading is suitable.

The cost of mini forex trading accounts is a few hundred dollars and will allow you to trade in a real market situation without exposing yourself to too much risk. Before getting a regular trading account, it’s suitable to open a mini forex account first to gain valuable experience and skills.

Mini Forex Trading is specially designed for people who are just recently attractive to currency trading. Very nice leverage is a potential thing for investor a mini Forex trading account with investing a mere $250.

Mini Forex trading accounts are ideal for increasing exposure as trading confidence builds because the traders are not limited to only trading one lot at a time. A trader can just trade 10 mini lots to make an equal trade to one ordinary lot. If a broker has more than one price on one or both parties, they will automatically optimize the price. That means, the broker will always show the lowest offer and the highest bid.

forex Banks

Banks slash dollar interest rates

Banks are slashing US dollar deposit and loan interest rates to solve stagnant capital movement and encourage business and investment, said a senior State Bank official.
A new US$ deposit interest rate ground is set up, when state-owned banks and Vietcombank officially lower US$ deposit interest rates to 1.5 percent per annum at the highest. (Photo: SGGP)

Since June 1, many banks, such as the Bank for Investment and Development (BIDV), the Bank of Agriculture and Rural Development(Agribank), the Bank for Industry and Trade(Vietinbank) have reduced dollar deposit and loan interest rates by 1.5 percent and three percent per year respectively, down by 0.4 to 0.6 percent compared with previous interest rates.

Vietcombank on June 1 adjusted rates, including a cut to 1.3 percent for six-month deposits, 1.4 percent for nine-month deposits and down to 1.5 percent for 12-month deposits. The bank also applied dollar deposit interest rates by 1.5 percent for more than 12-month deposits from June 9.

The bank began applying dollar loan interest rates at three percent for short term loans and four percent for medium and long term loans.

Some commercial banks have also adjusted dollar interest rates for savings and loans.

Dong A Commercial Bank applied dollar savings interest rates at 1.5 percent for nine and twelve month deposits from June 1.

At the beginning of June, the Vietnam Bank Association called for its members to slash dollar deposit and loan interest rates by 1.5 percent and three percent respectively.

The current average interest rates for dollar accounts are 1.24-2.65 percent and dollar loans of three to five percent.

Cuts to deposit and loan interest rates were positive for the foreign exchange market, as businesses were hesitant to borrow in dollars to avoid risks in exchange rate fluctuations. It has also helped to reduce speculation of the dollar.

At a Government meeting to discuss Vietnam’s foreign exchange market, the ministries of Finance, and Planning and Investment agreed that world economy shows sign of recovery.

Export and import demands have increased, but direct foreign investment is forecast to fall, causing problems for the domestic balance of payments.

The general secretary of the Vietnam Bank Association, Duong Thu Huong, said commercial banks should agree to slash foreign currency deposit and loans that are suitable to supply and demand.

Some export companies have received Government-backed subsidized loans, however, they did not pay banks back in dollars, with some companies just wanting to borrow dong, instead of dollars to avoid exchange rate fluctuations.

According to Dr. Tran Huy Hoang, dean of the Bank Department of the University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City, companies are still hesitant to borrow dollars due to high lending interest rates and currency fluctuations.

Banks should decrease lending interest rates, as well as carry out measures to stabilize rates between the dollar and dong, he added.

market

The foreign exchange market is the market in which currencies are bought and sold against one another. People may loosely refer to this market under different labels, including foreign exchange market, forex market, fx market or the currency market.
The foreign exchange market is the largest market in the world, with daily trading volumes in excess of $1.5 trillion US dollars. All transactions involving international trade and investment must go through this market because these transactions involve the exchange of currencies.
It is the most perfect market that exists because it has a large number of buyers and sellers all selling the same products. There is a free flow of information and there are little barriers to participate.
The currency exchange market is an over-the-counter (OTC) market which means that there is not one specific location where buyers and sellers can actually meet to exchange currencies. Instead, transactions are conducted by phone, fax, e-mail or through the websites of brokers who specialize in currency trading.

Major Forex

FOREX trading, there are six major reasons traders lose money. If you can avoid these pitfalls then you can join the minority of winners that pile up the big profits consistently.
Here are the trading traps that will cause you to lose money:



1. The Contrarian’s DiseaseYou should have a contrary opinion to the other Forex traders in the market – most traders lose money, so you want to trade in opposition to the herd.
Most traders lose because they lack discipline and money management - but they’re very often right about market direction. It’s the trader’s inability to maximise these opportunities when they’re trading the FOREX - and stay with the trend, that makes them lose money.
Many traders are looking to pick tops and bottoms, and never focus on trend following. Picking tops and bottoms is impossible. You can’t predict the turning points in FOREX trading - so you need to change your focus to trend following, not prediction.
2. The Chartists Trap
In FOREX trading many traders fall into the trap of putting all their efforts into studying charts. Studying charts is important - but you must not be too subjective, or you will end up losing.
Avoid methods that need too much subjective analysis, such as Elliot Wave and cycles - and gravitate towards indicators that define trends - such as moving averages and momentum oscillators.
Be objective and not subjective in your FOREX trading.
3. Ego
FOREX trading attracts some of the cleverest people in the world, these traders are smart - but they also have big egos. An ego is a bad trait in FOREX trading - as it means you always want to see the market, as you want to see it - and not how it really is.
Traders need to ask themselves this question: Do you want to make money or feel smart? The market won’t accommodate both of these desires – if you want to make money, leave your ego behind.
The humble trader who has an objective and disciplined FOREX trading plan, realizes the market can make him (and everyone else) look stupid. However, he’s only interested in making money, and he’ll generally out perform an ego filled trader, who wants to beat the market.
4. Guru Syndrome
When you’re trading in the FOREX market, it’s tempting to follow someone who’s made money - or says they have.
It’s a fact that most traders want success given to them by someone else, and these traders can’t take responsibility for their own actions.
In the game of FOREX trading, the only way to succeed is on your own - if you can’t accept this, then do something else.
5. Chasing your Tail
Many traders get impatient when FOREX trading - they start trading using one method, get frustrated with it when it’s not performing - they then switch to a different method, and so on.
Bad periods are normally followed by good trading results (if you’re using a soundly based system) - so patience and discipline are needed. By frequently chopping and changing systems, you’ll lose money.
If you have a trading plan that you believe in, then stick with it - and stop chasing your tail. Stay focused, and be patient with your system.
6. Using Options Incorrectly
When you’re FOREX trading, using options gives you staying power - and limited risk, which makes options a great trading tool.
Many traders use options incorrectly - they focus on buying options with small time value, and that are way out of the money. This is a guaranteed way to lose money when options trading! What you need to do is focus on buying options, at or in the money - with lots of time value - also use spreads to increase your chances of success.
In conclusion - Don’t try and be too smart - the above pitfalls are made by some of the brightest traders around. In most cases these mistakes come from thinking you have to be clever, or use complicated methods to succeed - however the reverse is true.
Keep your method simple, keep your focus, accept responsibility for your actions, and accept that the market will make you look stupid at times – it does it to everyone!
If you watch out for the six pitfalls outlined above, you’ll be able to make big long-term profits - and that’s the ONLY goal in FOREX trading.
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Aug 31, 2008 at 15:16 o\clock
Introduction To Forex Trading | ForexGen
by: forexgenpivot Keywords: forexgen, trading, forex, broker, online, forex, trading, forex, market, forex, trading, software, forex, trading, system, forex, trade, forex

simple breakout system

1. it’s a very simple breakout system and it’s a fact that most major trends start from breaks to new market highs or lows.

2. By its very nature its long term and if you look at a Forex chart, you will see the big trends can last many months or longer.

3. This system as it is always in the market so is guaranteed to put you on the side of every big trend.

It’s also got some other great advantages, it’s quick to implement about 15 minutes a day max and gives you a set trading signal with no subjective judgement needed.

Despite the fact it works and will continue to work most traders won’t bother with it and here are the reasons why.

1. They think its to simple despite the fact it works

2. They want to buy tops and bottoms exactly, despite the fact you can’t do this

3. Its to long term and traders always like action and lack the discipline to hold long term trends

4. It’s not complex - traders think this increases chances of success but of course the opposite is true - simple systems are more robust.

5. It’s not based on fancy theories chaos, neural networks, artificial intelligence etc - these theories don’t work in Forex but again traders love them.

6. There is no fancy packaging or a ridiculous name that insinuates taking on and beating the market.

Most traders pick junk robots with simulated track records and fall for the hype. This automated Forex trading system has no hype but plenty of profits and I know which system I would rather have!

The system works and will continue to work and if you are interested in long term profits take a look at it and it can increase your chances of forex trading success.

Can FAP Turbo Really Automate Your Internet Trading
This is especially the case if you are talking about trading on the Forex market as there are some automated systems which are actually quite good. There are literally dozens of these

All Information About Forex The Best Converting And Best
The best automated system I have come across so far has been the FAPTURBO IT does what it says on the tin… Fapturbo Is The Only Automated Forex Income Solution.

Forex Trading System Review How Can You Find the Best Trading
By simply installing the system, customizing your settings including level of risk, the amount of times you would like the system to trade your account in a given week and other options,

The Forex Autopilot System in 2009 Is it Still the Most
Automated Forex Trading Software - 5 Simple Tips to Select the Most Profitable Forex Robot System Are you looking for the best automated forex trading software to double.

Forex trading systems

When looking for the best automated Forex trading systems, a strong contender is the one enclosed and don’t think because its free it doesn’t work - it does and has for over 20 years…

automated Forex trading systemsThere is no question Forex trading systems have a bad reputation and this is down to the numerous junk robots that are sold with track records that are simply back tests and not proven. The system we are going to look at here on the other hand has been used by savvy traders around the world for years and works.

The system we are going to look at is the 4 Week Rule and it was devised by one of the great traders Richard Donchian and since the late seventies it’s been at the heart of some of the top traders systems - even trading legend Richard Dennis was a fan so you know your in good company.

The system is incredibly simple and you don’t even need a computer to run it - it has one simple rule, so lets look at it.

Buy a new 4 week high and reverse the position when a new 4 week low is hit - keep buying the 4 week high and selling the 4 week low and always maintain a position in the market.

You can’t get much more simple than that and but if you think about the logic it’s soundly based.

CURRENCIES TO TRADE IN THE FOREX MARKET

WHAT CURRENCIES TO TRADE IN THE FOREX MARKET
You can trade any country’s currency by exchanging it to another country’s currency, however the list below are the ones that are the most popular and are usually made available by most online brokers for you to trade.

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Aug 31, 2008 at 15:11 o\clock
FOREX Trading Strategy | ForexGen
by: forexgenpivot Keywords: forexgen, client, easily, manage, mostly, orders, quotes, trader, within, forex, types, using, mode, news, user, whom, cfd, forex, forex


I ventured into the FOREX market a little more than 1 year ago. I have tried and tested many different types of trading techniques and styles. Most were failures and some were successful. From my experience, traders making money in FOREX will not reveal their trading system, simply because somebody has to lose money in order for you to make money.Currently I have two strategies working for me. I started with a demo account a little more than one year ago and used the obvious techniques such as technical analysis and fundamentals. Technical analysis seemed to be the easiest method for an inexperienced trader since it only required looking at charts as opposed to watching the news. I used indicators such as MACD, Fibonacci, and RSI to help assess the market and make a prediction on price movement. Needless to say I was successful in my demo account, however when I went live, fear set in and I could not trade using the same techniques I had developed over 4 months of trading with a demo account.

The stress was too much and like a lot of people, I started looking for a FOREX signals provider to minimize the time spent and stress. After some due diligence on quite a few FOREX signals providers, I did find a reliable FOREX charting software package that provided excellent signals. To my surprise, the signals worked. The only difficult part was to discipline myself to take each signal whether I agreed with it or not. After all, the company I chose had a winning track record for 3 consecutive years.
Now that I had a positive flow of income from a FOREX signals provider, I decided to open a second account using my own trading system. This is where I discovered what I feel is a full proof system when it comes to making a fast 30 to 50 pips in FOREX.

Trading now for a little more than 1 year, I noticed that the market moved on speculation. Speculation based on fear and news events, such as the CPI and retail sales. I noticed that between the times of 4:30 am eastern and 8:30 am there was a lot of critical news in majors such as the Euro and the British Pound. The market would move at the exact moment these major news events were released. If a news event was due out at 4:30 am on the British Pound, more than likely the market spiked at that exact moment 30 to sometimes 50 pips up or down. What I started to do was trade on these news events. I would wait until that exact moment the news was due out and execute a trade when the market moved more than 7 pips from its current price 15 seconds before the news is released. A stop-loss should be set at 10 pips above or below the current price.

The trick to this method is executing the trade at the right time and discipline yourself to keep your stop-loss very tight, setting it to no more than 10 pips after you got into the trade. The reason being, this works all of the time, but if you click too soon or too late you could fail to predict the direction of the market. However, when you are right, your winning trades will outweigh your losing traders significantly since you are looking to make a gain of 30-50 pips and if you a wrong a loss of only 10 pips. I have used this method for 5 months and it works.
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Investors

There are many markets: markets for stocks, futures, options and currencies. These are probably the most accessible markets for everyday traders like you and I. People easily understand the basics of trading shares. I began trading shares first and then I moved on to trading currencies.If you do not know a lot about currency trading, allow me to introduce it to you. It is what I trade and I believe that it is one of the best markets to trade because of its efficiency. The transaction costs to execute a trade are minimal and most brokers provide you with the tools and data you need to make your trading decisions, they usually provide them for free.
The market is open 24 hours a day which allows you to design your trading hours around your daily commitments. It is very volatile, which is great for those people who are looking for day-trading opportunities.

The foreign exchange market is the market in which currencies are bought and sold against one another. People may loosely refer to this market under different labels, including foreign exchange market, forex market, fx market or the currency market.
The foreign exchange market is the largest market in the world, with daily trading volumes in excess of $1.5 trillion US dollars. All transactions involving international trade and investment must go through this market because these transactions involve the exchange of currencies.
It is the most perfect market that exists because it has a large number of buyers and sellers all selling the same products. There is a free flow of information and there are little barriers to participate.
The currency exchange market is an over-the-counter (OTC) market which means that there is not one specific location where buyers and sellers can actually meet to exchange currencies. Instead, transactions are conducted by phone, fax, e-mail or through the websites of brokers who specialize in currency trading.
The major dealing centers at the time of writing are: London , with about 30% of the market, New York , with 20%, Tokyo , with 12%, Zurich , Frankfurt, Hong Kong and Singapore , with about 7% each, followed by Paris and Sydney with 3% each. Because of the fact that these centers are all over the world, foreign exchange traders can execute transactions 24 hours a day. The market only closes on the weekends.
THE MAIN ‘PLAYERS’ IN THE FOREX MARKET
The five broad categories of participants are: consumers, businesses, investors, speculators, commercial banks, investment banks and central banks.
Consumers, including visitors of countries, tourists and immigrants, do need to exchange currencies when they travel so that they can buy local goods and services. These participants do not have the power to set prices. They just buy and sell according to the prevailing exchange rate. They make up a significant proportion of the volume being traded in the market.
Businesses that import and export goods and services need to exchange currencies to receive or make payments for goods they may have bought or services they may have rendered.
Investors and speculators require currencies to buy and sell investment instruments such as shares, bonds, bank deposits or real estate.
Large commercial and investment banks are the ‘price makers’. They are the ones who buy and sell currencies at the bid-and-offer exchange rates that they declare through their foreign exchange dealers.
Commercial banks deal with customers on one hand, and with the Interbank or other banks, on the other hand. They profit by utilizing the bid-and-offer spread. The bid price is the exchange rate that the buyer is willing to buy and the offer price is the exchange rate at which the seller is willing to sell. The difference is called the bid-offer spread. They also make profits from speculating about whether the exchange rate will rise or fall.
Central banks participate in the foreign exchange market in their effective duty as banks for their particular government. They trade currencies not for the intention of making profits but rather to facilitate government monetary policies and to help smoothen out the fluctuation of the value of their economy’s currency.

FOREX trading attracts

FOREX trading attracts some of the cleverest people in the world, these traders are smart - but they also have big egos. An ego is a bad trait in FOREX trading - as it means you always want to see the market, as you want to see it - and not how it really is.
Traders need to ask themselves this question: Do you want to make money or feel smart? The market won’t accommodate both of these desires – if you want to make money, leave your ego behind.
The humble trader who has an objective and disciplined FOREX trading plan, realizes the market can make him (and everyone else) look stupid. However, he’s only interested in making money, and he’ll generally out perform an ego filled trader, who wants to beat the market.
4. Guru Syndrome
When you’re trading in the FOREX market, it’s tempting to follow someone who’s made money - or says they have.
It’s a fact that most traders want success given to them by someone else, and these traders can’t take responsibility for their own actions.
In the game of FOREX trading, the only way to succeed is on your own - if you can’t accept this, then do something else.
5. Chasing your Tail
Many traders get impatient when FOREX trading - they start trading using one method, get frustrated with it when it’s not performing - they then switch to a different method, and so on.
Bad periods are normally followed by good trading results (if you’re using a soundly based system) - so patience and discipline are needed. By frequently chopping and changing systems, you’ll lose money.
If you have a trading plan that you believe in, then stick with it - and stop chasing your tail. Stay focused, and be patient with your system.
6. Using Options Incorrectly
When you’re FOREX trading, using options gives you staying power - and limited risk, which makes options a great trading tool.
Many traders use options incorrectly - they focus on buying options with small time value, and that are way out of the money. This is a guaranteed way to lose money when options trading! What you need to do is focus on buying options, at or in the money - with lots of time value - also use spreads to increase your chances of success.
In conclusion - Don’t try and be too smart - the above pitfalls are made by some of the brightest traders around. In most cases these mistakes come from thinking you have to be clever, or use complicated methods to succeed - however the reverse is true.
Keep your method simple, keep your focus, accept responsibility for your actions, and accept that the market will make you look stupid at times – it does it to everyone!
If you watch out for the six pitfalls outlined above, you’ll be able to make big long-term profits - and that’s the ONLY goal in FOREX trading.
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Aug 31, 2008 at 15:16 o\clock
Introduction To Forex Trading | ForexGen
by: forexgenpivot Keywords: forexgen, trading, forex, broker, online, forex, trading, forex, market, forex, trading, software, forex, trading, system, forex, trade, forex

FOREX trading

In FOREX trading, there are six major reasons traders lose money. If you can avoid these pitfalls then you can join the minority of winners that pile up the big profits consistently.
Here are the trading traps that will cause you to lose money:



1. The Contrarian’s DiseaseYou should have a contrary opinion to the other Forex traders in the market – most traders lose money, so you want to trade in opposition to the herd.
Most traders lose because they lack discipline and money management - but they’re very often right about market direction. It’s the trader’s inability to maximise these opportunities when they’re trading the FOREX - and stay with the trend, that makes them lose money.
Many traders are looking to pick tops and bottoms, and never focus on trend following. Picking tops and bottoms is impossible. You can’t predict the turning points in FOREX trading - so you need to change your focus to trend following, not prediction.
2. The Chartists Trap
In FOREX trading many traders fall into the trap of putting all their efforts into studying charts. Studying charts is important - but you must not be too subjective, or you will end up losing.
Avoid methods that need too much subjective analysis, such as Elliot Wave and cycles - and gravitate towards indicators that define trends - such as moving averages and momentum oscillators.
Be objective and not subjective in your FOREX trading.

Trade Binary

Trade Binary Options as a Hedging Strategy for Forex Trading

Posted by Shawn on Wednesday, June 10, 2009 · Leave a Comment

Forex traders often encounter failure of their strategies in the dreaded stop-loss zone. This zone, adjacent to the breakout point, is the fuzzy area where we Forex traders often place stops to protect ourselves from further losses. Each Forex trader who trade options uses different rules for his stop loss point. Usually this is slightly above or below the breakout point. But as we have all experienced, the problem is that a breakout often tests the breakout price, sometimes dropping slightly below the breakout price, ’shaking us out’ of our trade. Therefore the stop-loss point becomes fuzzy, forcing us to choose lower and lower stop-loss points, and wearing us out each time we re-enter the same breakout point.
Trade Binary Options using Binary Hedging Strategy

One attractive possibility is to hedge our Forex trade using a binary option hedge. This is actually much simpler than it sounds. What it actually does is shift our risk from the stop-loss zone to the area above the breakout point, where the prices are more likely to rise and where the breakout is less likely to fail due to the properties of trader momentum.

* Here we outline one such hedging strategy, using binary options trading to hedge against our Forex trades.
In this example, i place a trade of 1 mini lot EURUSD long, when its price crosses my breakout point of $1.00. Should the EURUSD test my breakout point before i exit this trade, i will place a $100 PUT binary option trade. What this does is shift my original breakout point lower, similar to a stop-loss, such that i am profitable as long as a test of the original EURUSD breakout point does not leave my Forex account with greater than a $70 loss. If I incur more than a $70 loss in my Forex account, then I immediately exit the EURUSD position.

* This has effectively shifted the risk of breakout failure from the below the breakout point to above the breakout point. The attractive feature of this hedging strategy is that most breakouts are often tested slightly the below breakout point. Using this hedging strategy we protect ourselves in the area below the breakout point rather then get worn out using a stop-loss that is lower than the breakout point, which is the common Forex trader practice. And the best part of this strategy is that the risk has been shifted to the area above the breakout point (our Forex trade must make at least $85 profit in order to cover the binary option loss). However we know that as long as the breakout has not failed, we will more than likely cover this hedge. Remember, the breakout is most likely to fail BELOW the breakout point, but now we are covered.

About the author: Jack Major is currently the Chief Risk Management Office of TradeSmarter.com, managing Risk and Strategies for all major market instruments. Previous to TradeSmarter, Jack was a senior consultant for many years for PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Risk Management

Euro retreats from 2009 Highs

This notion might have some merit, considering that fundamentals arguably favor a continued Euro appreciation. “The economy of the 27-country European Union shrank 0.3 percent in the three months ended June 30, for an annual rate of roughly 1.2 percent. The 16 countries that use the euro registered a 0.1 percent decline for the second quarter, or an annual rate of roughly 0.4 percent.” While output remains well below its 2008 levels, the slight contraction represents a tremendous

China moves ‘forward’ on currency derivatives

Chinese officials recently approved a preliminary list of banks to make the market in currency forwards. Foreign banks, including HSBC and Deutsche Bank AG, were heavily represented, although the ‘Big 5’ Chinese Banks were predictably included. The move is a large step forward for China, as currency derivatives experience a surge in popularity. Currency forwards allow traders to essentially bet on the future direction of a currency, by entering into an agreement to buy or sell currency at a fixed exchange rate on a fixed date in the future. Yuan-denominated forwards are especially popular, as traders can speculate if, when, and by how much China will revalue its currency. Dow Jones News reports:

Once foreign-exchange fowards trading on the interbank market becomes active, it could affect the yuan spot rate and offshore yuan forwards markets. But it’s still not clear how much freedom the People’s Bank of China is likely to give banks in trading fowards.

Hedge Funds get Burned by Dollar’s

n just the first two weeks of 2006, the Yen has already managed to appreciate 3.5% against the USD, costing some of the most prominent macro hedge funds hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Hedge funds, with their vast pools of investment capital and proportionately large research teams, are usually ahead of the curve in financial markets. That so many of them failed to foresee the USD’s sudden slide has come as a great surprise to many analysts. Many hedge funds have interpreted the recent fall in the value of the USD as a harbinger of further depreciation. Accordingly, they have quickly and significantly cut their long positions in the USD, a fact that is born out by official statistics. Reuters reports:

Long dollar positions measured against the yen, euro, sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar were cut to 1,241 futures contracts in the week to January 3 from 24,274 contracts the week before, according to the CFTC.

'Futures'

As financial markets grow increasingly sophisticated, individuals and businesses are now able to insure themselves against most conceivable risks. Specifically, as forex markets have grown more volatile in the last decade, many businesses have begun to hedge against the risk of rapid currency appreciation/depreciation. An array of financial products can be used towards this end, including options, forwards, futures, and swaps. The principal tool used in currency hedging continues to be currency futures, in which one party agrees to buy/sell a fixed amount of a given currency at a fixed exchange rate, on a fixed date in the future. While most large corporations now have entire departments devoted solely to hedging and risk management, small firms lack the resources necessary to engage in currency hedging. Anecdotal evidence suggests that small firms that import/export simply hope that relative changes in currency values balance out in the long run. This is a risky strategy, as the Times Online reports:

If the currency strengthens the price of the goods increases, making it difficult for companies to plan accurate revenue forecasts and ultimately putting stress on cashflow. Exporters selling into foreign markets face the risk of the currency weakening.

nvesting & Trading

Mrs Watanabe, the market’s metaphor for Japan’s housewife yen speculators, has come back to life.” In other words, the Yen carry trade is back. Precise data remains elusive, as always, but several recent papers/articles have nonetheless succeeded in bringing some clarity to this growing, but murky, type of trading strategy. According to one source, “Monthly capital and financial account outflow rose to a nine-year high of ¥3.75 trillion in March, up from ¥1.93tn in February, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Similarly, Japan’s Investment Trusts Association reported last week that Japanese investment trust holdings of foreign assets surged by ¥1.77tn ($15bn) in April to ¥32.3tn and are now up ¥4.57tn year-to-date. This is the biggest monthly increase since the monthly data began in 1989.”If it’s not already clear, allow me to spell it out. Japanese investors are collectively shorting their own currency, based on the expectation that it will neither appreciate suddenly nor fluctuate wildly so that they can earn profits from investing in higher-yielding alternatives. Research has showed (backed by common sense) that volatility is the main enemy of the carry trade. “When the carry-to-volatility ratio (i.e.,the ratio of the interest rate differentials to the volatility in the two currencies) increased through summer 2008 — in other words, when investors were able to make returns from the interest rate differentials under the low FX rate risk — they increased their positions to a remarkable degree.” On the flipside, “The reaction of the Japanese retail investors to the increase in financial market volatility (the VIX index measure of US equity market volatility is used as a proxy) was particularly apparent in October 2008 when investor positions were wound back sharply.”

Japanese Yen

Just when it looked like the carry trade was back for good and all signs pointed to a Yen depreciation, out of nowhere came a series of surprise developments, propping the Yen back up. Spanning finance, economics, and politics - a Forex Trifecta - these developments moved swiftly through the markets, creating optimism for the Yen where before there was only pessimism. Of course, it’s possible that this bump will prove temporary, and a reversal could transpire just as quickly.The biggest news, by a large margin, was a report that the Japanese economy had returned to growth. Similar in scale and in tenor to stories coming out of other countries, the data showed that Japan grew at an annualized rate of 3.6%

Archive for the 'Major Currencies

Having risen nearly 30% against the US Dollar since March, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD or Kiwi) is now close to a 9 1/2 month high. While still far from the record highs of 2008, the currency is already erased a large portion of the losses it racked up since the credit crisis gave way to economic recession.

As part of last Friday’s coverage of the Japanese Yen, we included a chart which compared the performance of the AUD/JPY cross to the S&P 500. Even without calculating the correlation coefficient, a cursory review of the chart revealed an uncanny relationship! Unsurprisingly, it turns out the same relationship also applies to the New Zealand Dollar, whose recent performance closely mirrors US equities.In other words, the interplay between risk appetite and risk aversion continues to dominate the forex markets, as traders move to calibrate the split of funds between so-called safe haven currencies and the riskier alternatives, among which the New Zealand Dollar is certainly counted. Much of the rally in the Kiwi, then, represents a correction, as investors acknowledge that the near 50% slide from-peak-to-trough was an overreaction.

Going forward, however, the Kiwi will have to rest on its own feet, as new themes move to the fore of investors’ minds. Specifically, they will begin to look more closely at the New Zealand economy, and demand evidence of a recovery. “Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard told a business audience the world has ‘avoided a repeat of the Great Depression. Now, we and the world, appear to be on our way to recovery. New Zealand looks likely to start recovering ahead of the pack.’ ”

At the same time, the most recent economic data showed an economy in freefall, as “New Zealand’s economy shrank for a fifth straight quarter…The economy contracted 2.7 per cent in the January-March quarter.” While forecasts vary, GDP is expected to fall by at least 2.1% in 2009, with a modest pickup expected in 2010. Investors are betting that the recovery will be driven by rising demand for commodities, which will help to buoy New Zealand exports. Once again, this conflicts with the data, which shows an annualized trade deficit of $3 Billion. Despite a fall in imports, the country is still importing more than its exporting. This could be a product of the stronger currency, which all stakeholders agree is not conducive to economic growth. In the end, the economy’s best chance for recovery lies in a resumption of debt-induced consumption and residential construction, the very forces which caused the current downturn. Says Mr. Bollard, “Reliance on past experience of strong house price inflation and easy credit will be untenable.”

Given the uncertain prospects for growth, combined with moderating price inflation, the RBNZ can be expected to hold interest rates at current levels for the near-term. “Bollard will leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 2.5 percent on July 30, according to all 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.” Based on swap rates, the markets feel similarly, and are pricing a mere 25 basis point hike over the next twelve months. With such a dubious prognosis, one has to wonder whether the Kiwi’s rally is really sustainable.

Archive for the 'Politics & Policy'

Just when it looked like the carry trade was back for good and all signs pointed to a Yen depreciation, out of nowhere came a series of surprise developments, propping the Yen back up. Spanning finance, economics, and politics - a Forex Trifecta - these developments moved swiftly through the markets, creating optimism for the Yen where before there was only pessimism. Of course, it’s possible that this bump will prove temporary, and a reversal could transpire just as quickly.The biggest news, by a large margin, was a report that the Japanese economy had returned to growth. Similar in scale and in tenor to stories coming out of other countries, the data showed that Japan grew at an annualized rate of 3.6% in the second quarter of 2009, a sharp reversal from the 11.7% contraction in the previous quarter (which was itself revised upward from -14%).

Archive for the 'Swiss Franc

When the Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervened three weeks ago in forex markets, the Swiss Franc instantly declined 2% against the Euro. Since then, the Franc has risen slowly, and it’s now in danger of touching the “line in the sand” of 1.5 EUR/CHF that analysts have ascribed to the SNB.That’s not to say that the Central Bank lacks credibility. Quite the opposite in fact. Every time a member of the SNB speaks about the possibility of intervention, the markets react. For example, “Swiss National Bank Governing Board member Thomas Jordan said the central bank remains willing to intervene in currency markets to prevent a further appreciation of the Swiss franc..The franc declined against the euro after the remarks.” Also, “The Swiss National Bank is sticking decidedly to its policy to prevent an appreciation of the Swiss franc, SNB Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth said in an interview published on Friday…The Swiss franc dipped after Roth’s comments.”

In addition, given that the SNB premised its intervention on deflation fighting, its credibility is now higher than ever, since the latest figures imply an inflation rate that is well into negative territory: “Swiss consumer prices dropped 1 percent year-on-year in June, the same rate as in May when prices fell at their fastest rate in 50 years, underscoring deflation dangers although most of the drop was due to oil.” Despite a fiscal stimulus, coupled with an easing of monetary policy and quantitative easing, the Swiss money supply is barely growing. At this point, the only thing the SNB can do is (threaten to) manipulate its exchange rate.

Perhaps this is why traders are willing to push back against the SNB, backed by “foreign-exchange analysts [that] argue that the SNB won’t have an appetite to continue buying foreign currencies in large amounts much longer.” The SNB is also fighting against the perception that Switzerland is one of a handful of financial safe havens. The fact that the Swiss Franc is probably undervalued is also contributing to the steady inflow of capital into Switzerland.

Still, investors are afraid to step across the line. Futures prices for the EUR/CHF are all hovering slightly above 1.50, for the next 18 months. Prior to the latest round of intervention, the expectation was for a steady rise in the Swiss Franc.

Archive for the 'US Dollar

Over the last week, the markets have been abuzz with chatter about how the US recession will soon come to and end, followed by a quick and healthy recovery. According to investor logic, the result would be a rise in inflation and interest rates. This optimism was partially deflated today, as the Federal Reserve bank conducted its annual monetary policy meeting.

Excluding a brief uptick in June (see chart below courtesy of the Cleveland Fed), investors had long come to expect that the Fed would leave its benchmark Federal Funds rate unchanged, at 0-.25%. At the same time, there was a strong belief that the Fed would begin to hike rates at the end of 2009, and comment accordingly in the press release that accompanied its monetary policy decision. Barron’s predicted yesterday: “The statement will acknowledge some improvement in the U.S. economy, though it will imply that this nascent growth reflected in recent gross domestic product reports is fragile and will be monitored closely. This will leave open the specter that interest rates could be increased at some point in the future.”

Archive for the 'Emerging Currencies

In forex, timing is everything. If I had written this post a couple weeks ago, the headline would read “Euro Touches 2009 High.” Perhaps if I had waited another week, it would have read, “Euro Approaching 2009 High.” But alas, I chose today to write about the Euro, and the headline I chose is probably the most appropriate under the circumstances.On August 5, “The euro hit a high for the year against the dollar as stocks trimmed their losses in afternoon trading Wednesday despite a generally cautious tone in currency markets.” Analysts were careful to point out that the markets remained cautious and the Euro eased past - rather than smashed through - its previous high. Technical analysts would and have argued that this paved the way for the subsequently rapid decline: “The euro is testing the base of an ascending channel with daily momentum charts showing a ‘double top in overbought territory.’ ”

This notion might have some merit, considering that fundamentals arguably favor a continued Euro appreciation. “The economy of the 27-country European Union shrank 0.3 percent in the three months ended June 30, for an annual rate of roughly 1.2 percent. The 16 countries that use the euro registered a 0.1 percent decline for the second quarter, or an annual rate of roughly 0.4 percent

Archive for the 'Economic Indicators

n forex, timing is everything. If I had written this post a couple weeks ago, the headline would read “Euro Touches 2009 High.” Perhaps if I had waited another week, it would have read, “Euro Approaching 2009 High.” But alas, I chose today to write about the Euro, and the headline I chose is probably the most appropriate under the circumstances.On August 5, “The euro hit a high for the year against the dollar as stocks trimmed their losses in afternoon trading Wednesday despite a generally cautious tone in currency markets.” Analysts were careful to point out that the markets remained cautious and the Euro eased past - rather than smashed through - its previous high. Technical analysts would and have argued that this paved the way for the subsequently rapid decline: “The euro is testing the base of an ascending channel with daily momentum charts showing a ‘double top in overbought territory.’ ”

This notion might have some merit, considering that fundamentals arguably favor a continued Euro appreciation. “The economy of the 27-country European Union shrank 0.3 percent in the three months ended June 30, for an annual rate of roughly 1.2 percent. The 16 countries that use the euro registered a 0.1 percent decline for the second quarter, or an annual rate of roughly 0.4 percent.” While output remains well below its 2008 levels, the slight contraction represents a tremendous improvement from the first quarter, when GDP shrank by 2.5%.

Archive for the 'Commentary'

Yesterday, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of the UK cut their benchmark interest rates to record lows. This is especially incredible in the case of the UK, whose Central Bank over 300 years old! You can see from the following chart that both Central Banks have more than made up for their respectively slow starts in easing monetary policy by effecting several dramatic rate cuts, following the example of the Federal Reserve. The baseline UK rate now stands at .5%, only slightly higher than the Federal Funds rate, and slightly lower than the 1.5% ECB rate.Given that they have essentially reached the terminus of their monetary policy options, all three Central Banks are exploring further options aimed at pumping money into their respective economies. The Fed has already “announced a program to buy $100 billion in the direct obligations of housing related government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan banks — and $500 billion in mortgage-based securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae.” As I wrote in a related article, “this was quickly followed by repurchase programs, lending facilities, investments in money market funds, and option agreements, all of which were designed to supplement its ‘traditional open market operations and securities lending to primary dealers.’ The Fed’s efforts also worked to ease the liquidity shortage in credit markets abroad by entering into swap agreements with several foreign Central Banks suffering from acute Dollar shortages.”

In conjunction with the rate cut, the Bank of the UK, meanwhile, will pump £150bn directly into UK credit markets through liquidity support, buying public and private debt, and asset purchases. “The main purpose of quantitative easing is not to send the money supply into orbit but to stop it from crashing…the broad money held by households has risen at a worryingly slow rate over the past year, and holdings by private non-financial firms have actually been dropping.” In contrast to the monetary programs of the UK and US, the ECB has thus far refrained from the kind of liquidity support that would necessitate printing new money. Instead, “the central bank will continue offering euro-zone banks unlimited loans at the central bank’s policy rate until at least the end of this year.”

The interest rate cuts were announced simultaneously with a spate of macroeconomic data, which collectively paint a bleak picture. Eurozone growth is projected at -2.7% for 2009 and 0% for 2010. The current unemployment rate at 8.2% and climbing. The thorn in the side of the EU is represented by eastern Europe, where growth is falling at an alarming pace, dragging the EU down with it. While EU member states have pledged to intervene if one of their own falls into bankruptcy, it’s unlikely that they would intervene similarly if a non-EU member state went bust. The UK economy is similarly desperate, having contracted at an annualized rate of 5.8% in the most recent quarter. The wild cards are the real estate and financial sectors, the fortunes of which are increasingly intertwined.

So what do the forex markets have to say about all this? Economists have used the dual phenomena of risk aversion and deflation to explain the interminable weakness in the the Pound and Euro. Everyone is surely familiar with the notion of the US as “safe haven” during periods of global financial instability. The deflation hypothesis, meanwhile, suggests that the ECB (and to a lesser extent, the Bank of UK), fell behind the curve when easing liquidity. The ECB, especially has harped on inflation as a reason for cutting rates more quickly. Given that investors are now more concerned with capital preservation than price inflation, it follows that they would prefer to invest where Central Banks were more vigilant about deflation (i.e. the US).

Personally, I think that the continued declines in both currencies, in spite of steep interest rate cuts, indicates that the deflation hypothesis is bunk, and investors remain fixated on risk aversion. By no coincidence, the temporary rebound in US stocks that took place in January was also accompanied by a bump in the Euro