Couldn’t they intervene? History says they won’t…and if they did, it will backfire!

So the central bank wants a lower Canadian dollar to make it easier on these crucial companies. Will they get it? NO! Oh sure, they may be able to influence the USD/CAD up 300-500 pips…but what is that when the pair has moved 2,700 pips downward and will continue that downtrend?



You see, traders know that the global economy is “on the mend” and as it is recovering, it will consume more oil and other commodities that Canada exports. They also know that the U.S. dollar has been in a broad downtrend since March (according to the U.S. Dollar Index). This broad U.S. dollar sell off isn’t going to change just because the Canadian central bank wants it to.



Oh yeah, but they could go in and “sell Canadian dollars” right? Sure they could…but, it would not be effective and the foreign exchange market would simply laugh at them with the trend and fundamentals going in the favor of the traders and against that of the bank.



Also, traders know that there’s a good chance that the bank is bluffing too. Why? The central bank has abandoned intervention policies ever since 1998. They didn’t intervene when the currency reached a record high in 2007 and or when it’s had its biggest gain since the Korean War during May.



Therefore, there are a ton of years there that the bank did nothing when the currency moved to extremes. So they have no reason to believe that it will be any different this time.



Most of the time, they just “jaw bone” the currency by talking about what they “could” do. However, when push comes to shove, they usually don’t anymore.



They stopped intervening in 1998 because it simply ended up causing even more volatility and ended up making it even more difficult for their exporters to hedge their risks.



If they “talk the pair up”, short the rallies!



Therefore, here’s how I see this playing out on the chart below. Sure, they may “talk the currency up” a few hundred pips or more in the near term. It could happen. However, smart traders are “selling rallies” in the USD/CAD pair because the trend is down and the fundamentals overall, are on the mend. Therefore any bounce upward, is likely to result in another big push downward.